- 2024-10-04
- News
Yen Depreciation Continues, Exchange Rate Breaks 154
On April 16th, the US Dollar Index once again reached a new high in its phase, breaking through the 106-point threshold. At the same time, the currencies of various countries have depreciated due to the strong US dollar, with the Japanese yen being the most typical example.
The yen to US dollar exchange rate has already broken through 154, setting a new historical low. In the past two years, people were still worried about how long the days when 150 yen could only be exchanged for 1 US dollar would last. This year, there is no need to worry about this issue, because the answer is that it will last for a long time, and in the future, it may take 160 or even 170 yen to exchange for 1 US dollar.
The continuous and significant depreciation of the yen is inseparable from the strength of the US dollar.
Since the US started raising interest rates in March 2022, it has cumulatively increased the federal funds rate by 525 basis points. In a high-interest environment, global hot money flows back to the US from various countries. The first step is to sell other currencies and buy US dollars, thus widening the exchange rate gap with the US dollar.
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Compared to other currencies, the yen has depreciated more in this process. Taking the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen as an example, last year's exchange rate was around 5.2, but now it's only 4.68. This means that 100 yen, which could be exchanged for 5.2 yuan a year ago, can now only be exchanged for 4.68 yuan. Friends working in Japan have lost 10% on the exchange rate without doing anything wrong in a year.
Some netizens, seeing the continuous depreciation, have started to "worry" about Japan, believing that under the harvest of the US dollar, Japan will soon become a developing country.
Does this view make sense? Let's first talk about the criteria for developed countries.
To become a developed country, it is necessary to simultaneously meet certain standards in economy, industry, technology, humanistic quality, and social system. It is undeniable that the economy is the most important, and the per capita GDP is generally used as a measure. However, meeting the per capita GDP standard does not mean it is a developed country, because other standards may not be met, such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other Middle Eastern oil-producing countries. On the other hand, not meeting the per capita GDP standard can absolutely not be considered a developed country, which is beyond doubt.
The depreciation of the yen's exchange rate will indeed have an impact on Japan's GDP and per capita GDP. In 2023, Japan's nominal GDP in US dollars was surpassed by Germany, causing Japan to fall from the world's third-largest economy to the fourth-largest. However, Japan's actual economic growth last year was higher than Germany's negative growth, and the base in 2022 was also higher than Germany's. The reason for such an illogical phenomenon is that the yen depreciated more severely than the euro.
The lack of GDP will inevitably drag down per capita GDP. From this perspective, the depreciation of the yen will indeed have a negative impact on Japan's status as a developed country. However, the degree of yen depreciation is obviously far from being so serious.In 2023, Japan's GDP per capita reached $33,800, while the threshold for developed countries is $20,000. This indicates that Japan still has a substantial safety cushion, especially considering this result was achieved despite a significant devaluation of the yen.
In fact, it is globally recognized that Japan's economy finally emerged from the "lost 30 years" in 2023. The 1990s were the most brilliant period for the Japanese economy. By 1995, Japan's GDP per capita had already reached $44,200, a figure higher than the United States' GDP per capita, which had not yet reached $30,000 at that time. However, with the burst of Japan's asset bubble and the emergence of high leverage issues, Japan began to fall into an economic recession. Domestic demand was sluggish, and even the Japanese government's aggressive "money printing" and massive borrowing could not stimulate domestic demand. Japan fell into long-term deflation, with prices continuing to decline.
It was not until last year that a turning point emerged, with Japan's CPI achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 3.2%. At the same time, Japan's real estate and stock markets also changed their previous styles and set new highs. The Nikkei index rose nearly 30% in 2023 and continued to rise this year, reaching 41,000 points in March.
Therefore, it is not appropriate to consider Japan as a developing country solely based on the devaluation of the yen. On the contrary, for an export-dependent economy like Japan, the devaluation of its currency is beneficial for foreign trade and can stimulate the economy. Of course, Japan is short of domestic energy and raw materials, which are mostly imported from abroad. The devaluation of the yen will increase the cost of imports, weaken the competitiveness of Japanese companies, and trigger imported inflation. This form of inflation is not caused by increased demand but may actually suppress domestic consumer demand.
What Japan is most worried about is not the so-called dollar harvest leading to yen devaluation, but facing industrial bottlenecks. This is related to our country. As mentioned earlier, the Japanese economy reached its peak in the 1990s, and products made in Japan were loved by the world. Japanese home appliances were popular worldwide, and Japanese cars dominated the American market, suppressing local American car companies.
Japan has become a country with high-end manufacturing capabilities, which is why it remains a developed country even after the bubble burst. The advantages of the mid-to-high-end industries and a solid foundation are still present.
The industrial advantages are being eroded, and the biggest challenger is us.
Taking the automotive industry as an example, the strength of Japanese car companies such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan remains strong. Toyota even became the world's first car company to break the annual sales record of 10 million last year. However, the advantage of the Japanese automotive industry lies in traditional energy, that is, fuel vehicles, while it has been far left behind by China in the field of electric vehicles.
The global vehicle ownership is limited. With the advent of the intelligent era, electric vehicles will inevitably gradually replace fuel vehicles and become the mainstay in the future, and there are already some signs of this. This means that the market of Japanese car companies and related parts companies will be eroded by Chinese companies, affecting not just one or two car companies, but tens of thousands of companies along the entire automotive industry chain.
Don't think this is a fantasy. Isn't the once invincible Japanese home appliance industry in decline now? Chinese home appliance brands not only sell well domestically but are also popular in overseas markets, with an overall market share that has long been the world's first. The only advantage of Japanese companies may be in some small appliance products.Japan's dominant industries such as automobiles, semiconductors, and machinery may follow the old path of home appliances, which is what Japan is most nervous about.
As a strong manufacturing country, Japan's mid-to-high-end industries are the key to its survival and maintaining its status as an economically developed country. Once the advantages in this area are lost or market share is taken away, it will truly bring a crisis to Japan. From this perspective, it may not be the United States, which is mainly dominated by financial, legal, and other service industries, that could lead Japan back to being a developing country, but China, which is currently experiencing industrial upgrading.
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