- 2024-07-25
- News
China's Carbon Market: New Quota Plan Sets Rising Prices for Over Two Months
Power generation companies' previously surplus quotas will gradually be eliminated, and the carbon emission costs for controlled emission companies will become increasingly higher.
With two and a half months left until the deadline for the third compliance period of the national carbon market, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has finally released a new quota allocation plan.
On October 17th, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Distribution and Settlement of Carbon Emission Rights Trading Quotas for the Power Generation Industry for the Years 2023 and 2024" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). The attachment to this notice includes the "Total Amount and Allocation Plan for the Power Generation Industry's Carbon Emission Rights Trading Quotas for the Years 2023 and 2024" (hereinafter referred to as the "Allocation Plan").
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The allocation plan determines the surplus or deficit of quotas for controlled emission companies in the national carbon market by the end of 2025, thereby affecting the transaction prices and scale of the national carbon market.
The basic direction of the allocation plan is: the gradual reduction of free quota distribution and the gradual elimination of previously surplus quotas. Without considering the inclusion of new industries and offset mechanisms, and taking into account the actual carbon reduction of power plants, it is understood from the data calculated by multiple institutions that the overall quota deficit in the national carbon market for the years 2023 and 2024 is between 0.2 billion and 0.7 billion tons.
Industry insiders believe that due to the late distribution of quotas, the new CCER (voluntary carbon emission reductions that can be offset after verification) has not yet entered the market, and the tightening of carbon quotas, among other factors, the carbon quota trading in the national carbon market will see a rise in both volume and price in the near future.
On October 17th, the closing price of the national carbon market was 103.42 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the previous day. The carbon price has been on an upward trend since August of this year, having risen by more than ten percent compared to the closing price on August 1st, and has nearly doubled compared to the 48 yuan/ton at the opening of the carbon market on July 16, 2021.
The national carbon market has gone through two compliance periods (the quotas for 2019-2020 were the first compliance period, and the quotas for 2021-2022 were the second compliance period), which were completed by the end of 2021 and 2023, respectively. With the release of the new allocation plan, the national carbon market will enter the peak trading period of the third compliance period.
Unlike the first two compliance periods, which were two years each, the third and fourth compliance periods of the national carbon market will each last for one year. This means that power generation companies under the control of the national carbon market must complete the compliance of carbon emission quotas for the years 2023 and 2024 by December 31, 2024, and December 31, 2025, respectively.Changes in the New Compliance Cycle
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment had previously released a draft distribution plan at the end of June 2024, and in the official document released on October 17, the power generation benchmark values for coal-fired power units in these two compliance cycles were slightly relaxed compared to the draft. At the same time, the official document removed the unit cooling method correction factor, meaning that air-cooled units no longer receive a 5% quota preference. Overall, compared to the draft, the scale of quotas issued by the national carbon market in the official document has hardly changed.
According to the distribution plan, in the third and fourth compliance cycles, the quotas obtained for free by controlled emission enterprises will be slightly reduced compared to before. CITIC Construction Investment previously calculated based on the draft that the overall quota shortfall rate for the power generation industry in 2023 and 2024 was about 0.5% and 1.0%, respectively.
Given the previous surplus of quotas, the supply and demand of quotas in the current national carbon market are theoretically in excess of demand. According to the "National Carbon Market Development Report (2024)" released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the quota issuance in 2021 and 2022 was 5.096 billion tons and 5.104 billion tons, respectively, with a surplus of 1.47 million tons and 12.98 million tons, accounting for 0.03% and 0.25% of the total quota issuance.
However, due to the varying degrees of reluctance to sell by enterprises with quota surpluses, the supply and demand of quotas in the national carbon market are relatively tight, and carbon prices continue to rise. The price of the national carbon market on July 16, 2021, when it opened, was 48 yuan/ton, and by the end of 2023, the comprehensive closing price was 79.42 yuan/ton, an increase of 65.46% compared to the opening price on the first day of trading, and an increase of 46.48% compared to the closing price of the first compliance cycle.
To change the reluctance to sell and eliminate the previous surplus quotas as soon as possible, the quota allocation plan for the new compliance period has proposed a strict quota carryover policy.
The distribution plan shows that controlled emission enterprises can use quotas from the current year and previous years to comply with the 2023 and 2024 compliance periods. Controlled emission enterprises can apply to convert quotas held for the 2024 year and previous years into 2025 year quotas before June 10, 2026. Unconverted quotas will no longer be used for compliance in the 2025 year and subsequent years. The convertible amount is 1.5 times the net quota sales volume of key emission units from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2025, and does not exceed the holding volume at the end of 2025.
Pei Xiaofei, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, said at a regular press conference in August 2024 that, according to calculations, under the current carryover measures, it will encourage enterprises with quota surpluses to gradually release a quota volume roughly equivalent to the compliance demand to the market, in order to better balance market supply and demand.
A carbon market trading manager of a controlled emission enterprise said that there are only two months left in the 2023 compliance period, and many enterprises with quota deficits are worried about not being able to comply in time and will buy quotas as soon as possible, so the supply and demand in the carbon market is still relatively tight recently. The quota carryover policy promotes the release of surplus quotas, and it is estimated that it will not be implemented until the 2025 compliance period for the 2024 quotas.
In addition to the above changes, compared with the previous two compliance periods, there are also many changes in the distribution plan, including changing the power supply benchmark value to the power generation benchmark value, canceling the heat supply correction coefficient, changing the load correction coefficient to the peak regulation correction coefficient, and no longer including indirect emissions of electricity in controlled emissions, etc. These changes are all to make the quota accounting and issuance more reasonable, improve data quality, and promote low-carbon green transformation.Carbon Emission Costs for Power Generation Companies Are Increasing
The first two compliance periods of the national carbon market were adaptation periods, during which the vast majority of controlled emission companies did not bear significant economic burdens. The core element of the carbon market is to use market mechanisms to promote high carbon-emitting companies to reduce emissions; therefore, in the upcoming compliance periods, controlled emission companies will face increasingly higher carbon emission costs.
Currently, the national carbon market only includes the power generation (thermal power) industry, with a total of 2,257 thermal power companies under control, covering approximately 5.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year, accounting for more than 40% of the national carbon dioxide emissions. According to the carbon emission list of Chinese listed companies compiled by United Carbon Investment, the total carbon emissions of the power industry account for 40.00% of the total emissions on the list. In 2022, there were 30 listed companies in the power industry, with a total carbon emission volume of 219.9 million tons.
Large power generation groups have higher efficiency and relatively lower unit carbon emissions, and most of them currently have a surplus of carbon quotas. The financial reports of several state-owned power generation companies in 2023 show that they have made profits from carbon trading in the national carbon market. However, some small and medium-sized power plants with lower efficiency and less advanced management, as well as self-prepared power plants, often have quota shortages.
From the allocation plan released this time, it is evident that the trend of gradually tightening the quota issuance benchmark is clear. In the future, power generation companies will either need to improve efficiency and reduce carbon emissions or purchase more quotas from the national carbon market.
Data released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment shows that in 2023, the national unit thermal power generation carbon dioxide emissions were approximately 821 grams/kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, and a decrease of 2.38% compared to 2018. Lin Lishen, an analyst at Zhongchuang Carbon Investment, analyzed for "Finance and Economics" that, given the continuous tightening of the quota benchmark value in the national carbon market, it is recommended that thermal power companies deeply explore the potential for carbon reduction, such as equipment transformation and biomass co-firing. At the same time, they should actively develop and apply CCER emission reduction projects to alleviate the burden of carbon emissions.
The carbon market has already created new market opportunities. Wang Jinyao, the general manager of Chain Carbon (Nanjing) Low Carbon Environmental Technology Company, a carbon emission optimization service provider, told reporters that through a series of adjustments such as refined management of the carbon emission process and technical improvements, it is possible to help power generation companies reduce carbon emissions. Taking a medium-sized power plant as an example, assuming its original carbon emission volume was 1 million tons/year, transformation could reduce its carbon emissions by 1%. According to the carbon price of 100 yuan/ton, it could create a benefit of 1 million yuan for it.
While the quota shortage continues to expand, the carbon price is also rising. The transaction price of the national carbon market has been rising continuously for two months since August this year. According to the information released by the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange, the closing price at the end of August 2024 increased by 1.17% compared to the last trading day of the previous month; it increased by 7.81% month-on-month at the end of September, reaching 99.48 yuan/ton. Since October, it has continued to fluctuate upwards.
Industry insiders suggest that controlled emission companies should formulate trading compliance plans as soon as possible to avoid trading peaks, as the closer to the compliance deadline, the higher the carbon price may be.
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